War On Terrorism in Pakistan
Reports of insurgents using sophisticated weapons including Russian made 14.7 anti-aircraft guns, against helicopters and fixed wing aircraft of the Pakistan air force have surfaced. Apparently it has been fitted on strategic heights in the area to target military aircraft. This anti-aircraft gun along with the 12.7 Russian model has long been in use by the Indian army.
Pakistan has previously raised its concerns pertaining to Indian involvement in Waziristan entailing alleged financial and arms support to the TTP. Besides, Pakistan had been relaying its concerns to US involving Indian activities in Afghanistan. It is felt that these directed at Pakistan are deliberately ignored by the US, as part of a long-standing policy to maintain some sort of twisted leverage, by playing one against the other. This has led to a bigger trust deficit between Pakistan and US. The perception in Islamabad is that the US has been studiously ignoring its demands that India be restrained from exploiting the ongoing instability in its frontier region.
Whose side is the US on? Though it has been pressuring Pakistan to undertake military operations against Taleban insurgent groups and had strongly opposed peace deals previously brokered with these groups, it does not seem to be supporting Pakistan in the ongoing battle in South Waziristan.
Such a conclusion can easily be dismissed if one relies on the golden nuggets of rhetoric, spewed from the US State and Defense department! But as realpolitik goes, actions speak louder than words. And US actions to help Pakistan at this critical point have so far failed the test.
A massive military operation aptly titled, Operation Rah-e-Nijat (path to purge) involving ground forces, artillery strikes and air power has been launched in Waziristan. Now Waziristan, North and South, border Afghanistan’s eastern provinces of Patika, Khost and Paktia.
In such a scenario, the natural assumption would be that Pakistan would be extended a helping hand by the coalition forces, especially, when Pakistan’s military has been extending the same cooperation in recent coordinated operations, in Helmand and other places. This assumption is not only based on natural reciprocity but is a derivative of standard military logic and the deep military to military cooperation existing between the two sides.
Apparently, the US outposts on the Afghan border parallel to Waziristan have been evacuated. Strange, considering the coalition forces should have boosted troops on their side given the significance of this operation. It is not a localised engagement being carried out in Swat or even other agencies in FATA, such as Bajaur and Mohmand.
This is about striking the epicenter of Taleban insurgency in Pakistan, whose nuisance value for the coalition forces runs very high. Considering the past pressure on Pakistan to target Waziristan — hosting the core group, the Tehrik-e-Taleban Pakistan — the US seems to have slunk from active involvement in supporting the operation. The implications of such a move at this point allows unhindered access to Taleban/foreign fighters from Afghanistan to aid the TTP in fighting against Pakistan’s armed forces besides trafficking of weapons. An influx of fighters and weapons is the last thing needed at
this point.
This is probably why General Tariq Majid, the Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee (CJCSC) urged the UK Chief of Defence Staff Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup to seal the Pak-Afghan border to prevent cross-border movement of terrorists and flow of weapons into Pakistan.
Proliferation of smuggled weapons is nothing new in this part of the world. Not only has it been a thriving trade since the days of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, this tradition has been sustained in the following years.
Reports of insurgents using sophisticated weapons including Russian made 14.7 anti-aircraft guns, against helicopters and fixed wing aircraft of the Pakistan air force have surfaced. Apparently it has been fitted on strategic heights in the area to target military aircraft. This anti-aircraft gun along with the 12.7 Russian model has long been in use by the Indian army.
While the insurgents long apprised of the impending operation in the area, may have procured these highly coveted weapons, contention tilts towards possible Indian involvement.
Pakistan has previously raised its concerns pertaining to Indian involvement in Waziristan entailing alleged financial and arms support to the TTP. Besides, Pakistan had been relaying its concerns to US involving Indian activities in Afghanistan. It is felt that these directed at Pakistan are deliberately ignored by the US, as part of a long-standing policy to maintain some sort of twisted leverage, by playing one against the other. This has led to a bigger trust deficit between Pakistan and US. The perception in Islamabad is that the US has been studiously ignoring its demands that India be restrained from exploiting the ongoing instability in its frontier region.
While Pakistan has charged India for fanning unrest and supporting
nationalist insurgents in Balochistan and vice versa — Delhi holds Pakistan responsible for not doing enough to bring perpetrators of the Mumbai attacks to justice, the ISI for the Indian embassy blast in Kabul and sponsoring dissent in Indian held Kashmir—
both states have not missed any
opportunity for ‘encouraging and exploiting’ trouble.
This myopic perspective is disturbing. If the objective is to create deeper destabilisation in the region (what that may achieve for any is the bigger question) then each—the US, India and Pakistan—must be accorded full points. However, it may be wiser for all to think beyond short-term tactical victories, that are potentially pushing them towards a bigger fallout. It will eventually backfire on the larger goal of defeating terrorism—affecting all stakeholders.
While presence of foreign fighters in the area including Uzbeks and Arabs is nothing new, their contribution to the current engagement is particularly irksome. Not only do they provide vital human support to the fierce fighters within the TTP ranks, they bring strategic experience from years of fighting in asymmetrical conflicts against well-armed international forces.
The problem with Waziristan is that the Pakistan army is fighting a guerrilla war with conventional forces. It is very likely to turn out to be a protracted engagement.
The decisive point for the military would be to gain local support among the tribes in Waziristan particularly the Mehsud tribe. This is why Army Chief General Ashfaq Pervaiz Kayani sent a special message seeking support for the operation while detailing the objective that is to secure the state and oust foreign terrorists from the area.
While curtailing the operation at this point would be detrimental in every respect, efforts to engage the tribes must be top priority.
The military is already doing that to bolster supportive resistance against the insurgents. However, a long-term strategy should look at working out a power sharing formula and regain control of the area from the influence of these groups. The TTP and affiliated groups support base among certain tribes needs to be alienated and rejected by others.
At the same time a reread of history of how the British eventually got Waziri tribesmen to desist from challenging state authority would be useful. Peace was won on the strength of
understanding and shifting responsibility and authority to the leading tribes with the withdrawal of forces from the area once control was wrested from miscreants.
This should be integrated within
the strategic doctrine at this time. Eventually, it will be the tribes who will act as guarantors of security of these hinterlands.
